- Nov 21, 2016
With the preliminary data at hand, and unless the virus mutates into equally or deadlier strains, I figure that our worst case scenario is that roughly 20% of 20% of 70% (about 3%) of the world population can perish and then we return to normalcy. While this is a horrific figure, it is definitely not the end of the world.I also feel like this is a bad dream and we are living in it. I have a friend who's convinced it's the end of the world and has thoroughly prepared for it!
But if it mutates into other deadly strains and keep doing so, then it could possibly wipe out most of the human race from the face of the planet.
Note: My 3% loss scenario is based on these preliminary (rough) data published so far. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
1. Around 80% of those who contracted the virus recover without being hospitalized. (20% hospitalized)
2. Around 80% of those hospitalized recover (20% dies). This is preliminary worldwide figure. Started with 90% or so and gradually descends as we go deeper into it. Hopefully this figure will stall at 80% or so.
3. Around 70% (60%-80%) spread of infection is enough for herd immunity.
Corona family of virii do mutate. but I hope it won't mutate into such deadly strains.